Winthrop Partners Market and Economic Outlook 5-3-21

The Markets (as of market close April 30, 2021)

Last Monday saw small caps and tech shares drive the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq higher. Investors may have drawn encouragement from strong, first-quarter corporate earnings reports, solid economic data, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its accommodative stance. Following the Russell 2000 (1.2%) and the Nasdaq (0.9%), were the Global Dow (0.6%) and the S&P 500 (0.2%). The Dow dipped 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries inched up, while the dollar and crude oil prices fell. Energy and consumer discretionary each advanced 0.6% last Monday, while consumer staples fell 1.2%.

Stocks were mixed last Tuesday, with the Dow, Russell 2000, and Global Dow inching up, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 declined. Among the sectors, energy advanced 1.3%, while financials and industrials each climbed 0.9%. The remaining major market sectors lost ground with utilities (-0.8%) and health care (-0.5%) falling the furthest. Yields on 10-year Treasuries increased 3.3%, crude oil increased 2.1%, and the dollar inched up 0.1%.

Equities retreated last Wednesday, despite the Federal Reserve indicating that it would continue fiscal stimulus measures in place. Only the small caps of the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow ended the day in the black. The Dow dipped 0.5%, the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, and the S&P 500 dipped 0.1%. Energy advanced 3.4% on word that OPEC+ indicated plans to boost supply, while crude oil prices climbed 1.3%. Communication services gained 1.2%. Information technology fell 1.0%. The dollar and the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined.

Last Thursday, stocks closed higher in what was a volatile session. The large caps of the Dow and the S&P 500 led the way, each climbing 0.7%, followed by the Global Dow (0.4%) and the Nasdaq (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 ended the session down 0.4%. Treasury yields, the dollar, and crude oil prices all advanced. First-quarter corporate earnings season is in full force, and Thursday’s results for some major companies were mostly favorable. Stocks also were buoyed by a strong initial estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product and a notable reduction in new claims for unemployment insurance. Among the market sectors, only health care and information technology failed to gain. Communication services enjoyed a particularly strong day, closing up 2.8%.

Equities retreated last Friday, giving back some of the gains from earlier in the week. The Russell 2000 fell 1.3%, followed by the Global Dow (-0.9%), the Nasdaq (-0.9%), the S&P 500 (-0.7%), and the Dow (-0.5%). The yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped, and crude oil prices lost 2.3%, while the dollar gained 0,7%. Market sectors were mixed last Friday, with energy (-2.7%), information technology (-1.4%), and materials (-1.1%) falling the furthest, while utilities (+0.8%), real estate (+0.6%), and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) advanced.

For the week, stocks couldn’t maintain record highs reached earlier, despite strong corporate earnings reports. Only the S&P 500 and the Global Dow were able to end the week in positive territory, while the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 each fell. Treasury yields, the dollar, and crude oil prices all closed the week up. Market sector performance was mixed, with energy, financials, communication services, real estate, and consumer discretionary ending the week ahead, while health care and information technology declined.

The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.872 per gallon on April 26, $0.017 per gallon more than the prior week’s price and $1.099 higher than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.0 million barrels per day during the week ended April 23, which was 253,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 85.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day.  Click here for the entire article: Winthrop Partners Market and Economic Update 5-3-21